tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1227919517269937208.post626924274291712989..comments2023-09-17T08:37:58.006-06:00Comments on The Good News Economist: Q4 Growth Likely to be Stronger than Q3Eldon Masthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15444008509086050220noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1227919517269937208.post-42273086292745257962009-11-16T01:22:02.335-07:002009-11-16T01:22:02.335-07:00It is a fact. If one does not want to hear depress...It is a fact. If one does not want to hear depressing news re the economy, one has to tune to the Good Economist. One reads the local paper, it is trying to be positive, and nothing but gloom from its readers.At the end of the day, is economics a state of mind? Like any other aspect in life? You get what you percieve? Instead of being hopeful, happy and prayerful, these clucks are just groaning and moaning. Please, Joan Rivers,poke fun at them?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1227919517269937208.post-5884523773251764062009-11-01T18:19:32.067-07:002009-11-01T18:19:32.067-07:00GNE,
Most of the CRE loans written in the last fe...GNE,<br /><br />Most of the CRE loans written in the last few years were non-recourse. The borrowers are simply handing back the keys to the banks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1227919517269937208.post-3556076833765811172009-11-01T14:48:01.229-07:002009-11-01T14:48:01.229-07:00Anonymous,
If indeed that is the case, then banks...Anonymous,<br /><br />If indeed that is the case, then banks should work their way through those 90% "bad loans." With interest rates where they are right now, they should take the chance will the fed is flooding with liquidity at almost 0%, to re-write the notes. With respects to any ARMs or resets coming due currently, they are all resetting at rates below their origination rate.<br /><br />GNEGNEhttp://goodnewseconomist.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1227919517269937208.post-22224362281396339482009-10-31T17:07:38.397-06:002009-10-31T17:07:38.397-06:00GNE,
Aren't you concerned that the same folks...GNE,<br /><br />Aren't you concerned that the same folks who said the subprime problem wasn't big enough to sink the economy are the same ones who say that commercial real estate problems can be handled as well. My contacts in the industry say we are only 10% through the bad loans; prices have dropped 40% and are still falling. What makes you think the banks will be able to handle this without another big bailout?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1227919517269937208.post-11805530106424709582009-10-31T16:27:34.011-06:002009-10-31T16:27:34.011-06:00Anonymous,
We will see. For the last several yea...Anonymous,<br /><br />We will see. For the last several years, ISM has been right on. Don't know if they changed their methodologies, but this past year especially has been right on the mark.<br /><br />Not much of a fan of Fredric Bastiat. His quote that Governments have never learned anything from history, or acted on principles deducted from it, just does not ring true for me. In particular with respect to this recession compared to inaction in the Great Depression, world government action was significantly different.<br /><br />GNEGNEhttp://goodnewseconomist.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1227919517269937208.post-55684937340999816282009-10-31T15:21:01.516-06:002009-10-31T15:21:01.516-06:00GNE
You seem to know more than Christina Roemer....GNE<br /><br /> You seem to know more than Christina Roemer. She says the stimulus from this point forward will have a diminishing impact( until 2010 when it actually becomes negative). The biggest bang has already happened. Clunkers along with the home credit, simply stole demand from future quarters. Additionally, those who participated in the "cash for clunkers" are financially worse off. They are in debt with a higher car payment and higher insurance rates. <br /><br />You need to read Fredric Bastiat to understand the "seen and unseen" <br /><br /><br />ISM BTW is a poor factor in determining GDP. From 2003 thru 2005 the ISM set a record for number of months above 60, yet GDP averaged barely 3% not the 4-5% the ISM would have predicted. <br /><br />A V recovery is not what we want. It would be a long term disaster.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1227919517269937208.post-860615526375181662009-10-30T20:11:57.305-06:002009-10-30T20:11:57.305-06:00Anonymous,
It really is a very simple equation ri...Anonymous,<br /><br />It really is a very simple equation right now. $700B has started its injection into the economy. Have a look at how the $3B Clunker money translated into growth. Obviously the results will not be completely linear, but as those additional stimulus dollars continue to find their way into economic programs, growth will be quite strong for an extended period of time. It is not surprising that those folks (including Prieur) who called for a lackluster Q3 number, will call the result a fluke, but when Q4 comes in even stronger and as job growth begins, there will be no place to hide those of-base gloomy predictions.<br /><br />Based on every indication from quarterly company earnings, the value for the S&P right now is quite undervalued...<br /><br />See the top level analysis of why here:<br /><a href="http://mast-economy.blogspot.com/2009/10/bad-news-bears-battle-break-neck-bounce.html" rel="nofollow">Break Neck Bounce</a>GNEhttp://goodnewseconomist.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1227919517269937208.post-77666483590924465482009-10-30T16:16:48.465-06:002009-10-30T16:16:48.465-06:00GNE,
What do you make of all the pundits who say ...GNE,<br /><br />What do you make of all the pundits who say the 3rd quarter GDP was a fluke and folks like your friend at Postcards from Capetown who say fair value for the S&P 500 is about 860. Is the bull market history?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com