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Thursday, December 20, 2012

GDP Gets Notable Upgrade

For its final estimate for the third quarter, GDP got a notable upgrade. Real GDP growth for the third quarter was revised up to 3.1 percent annualized, compared to the second estimate of 2.7 percent annualized and to the advance estimate of 2.0 percent.

The latest number easily topped market expectations for a 2.8 percent advance.

 Demand figures also got a boost. Final sales of domestic product increased 2.4 percent versus the second estimate of 1.9 percent and second quarter growth of 1.7 percent. Final sales to domestic producers (which exclude net exports) were revised to 1.9 percent, compared to the second estimate of 1.7 percent and compared the prior quarter's 1.4 percent.

Saturday, December 8, 2012

Unemployment rate falls to lowest level since 2008

The U.S. economy added 146,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate fell to 7.7% from 7.9% in October, the Labor Department said. That's the lowest unemployment rate since December 2008. "Our analysis suggests that Hurricane Sandy did not substantively impact the national employment and unemployment estimates for November," the Labor Department said in a press release.

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Stocks: Lots of Room to Run

Stocks have lots of room to run, said Goldman Sachs senior investment strategist Abby Joseph Cohen at the Bloomberg Hedge Fund conference in New York Wednesday morning. Cohen, a 22 year veteran of Goldman Sachs, estimates that even after the 2012 market rally, stocks could rise another 10% to 15% in 2013. While Congress has given the U.S. population reason to worry about taxes and the fiscal cliff, the overall fundamentals of the U.S. economy are healthy, and consumers have money to spend, Cohen said. Moreover, the U.S. has been reducing its debt relative to its growth domestic product during the past few years. She noted that debt was 4% of GDP for the fiscal year that started in October compared to an 11% ratio in 2008. "We are slowly growing our way out of the most extreme version of the debt crisis," she said.

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

November A Solid Month For Manufacturers

November was a solid month for the nation's manufacturers based on the PMI index from Markit Economics which shows a final reading of 52.8, up four tenths from the flash reading and up a sharp 1.8 points from October. Very encouraging is a good description for the details which show accelerating monthly growth for new orders and for output. New exports orders show their first monthly increase since May. Backlog orders are in the plus column for the first time since August. Employment growth is steady and respectable.

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