When all you read is gloom, turn here for a much different perspective.

Monday, April 13, 2009

No Basis For Earnings Fear

The first two weeks of 2009's earnings season have the perma-bears calling for earnings disasters in the Q1 results. A "sucker rally" is in progress they proclaim. But so far the profit jitters are unfounded and the only "suckers" to be found are packaged as candy on a stick.

The season kicked off last week with Alcoa(AA) missing forecasts, but painting a quite rosy picture for 2009. AA stock has never looked back.

Then came the Wells Fargo boom-shell and a string of other positive news on Thursday.

And now just days after the Wells Fargo (WFC) surprise we have Goldman Sachs (GS) also crushing the street's expectations. GS also joins a significantly growing list of banks that are now planning to quickly pay back their treasury bailout monies. GS will issue $5 billion in new stock to assist in paying back the US taxpayer swiftly.

And surprises to the upside did not halt with bank cheer Monday night.

Dress Barn (DBRN) also proclaimed a positive 2009 outlook. It raised its forward looking guidance pointing to improving retail trends across all its business units.

Federal Signal (FSS) followed with cheery news also raising its 2009 guidance. The global firm manufactures products and delivers integrated solutions for municipal, governmental, industrial, and airport customers worldwide.

And on Tuesday the insurance sector is likely to applaud loudly for MetLife (MET). The insurance giant asserted that it won't need bailout funds that US Treasury programs are extending to insurance institutions.

And to round out the night of No Fear, J.B. Hunt (JBHT) beat the Street by 2 cents. For them, trucking demand seems to be building again. Their 24c/share earnings were down only 4 cents from the 28 cents a share in the period a year-ago.

Aluminum started producing silver linings last week. Earning season continues this week with the only suckers appearing as red-faced bears on a stick.


  1. I like your approach! Positive viewpoints are difficult to find these days! I don't want rose colored glasses, but please let's be reasonable! The Market has shown some life lately and we should recognize it and even revel in it! Unfortunately my folio after close today did not look too positive! I guess the bears still stalk Wall Street! Keep up the positive attitude! It is refreshing and even valuable in the times of which we live!

  2. Don't want to be a Stevie Stormcloud but what does the -1.1% fall in March's retail sales mean? Should we be concerned or is it because Easter falls in April of this year? A positive viewpoint would be most appreciated. Thanks.

  3. The Goldman Sachs nos. are pure BS:-


  4. @TheHague,

    Thanks for the affirmation. We'll keep finding the silver linings and writing about it.

    I have to admit that the retail sales numbers surprised me. I'm not sure I can reconcile the ever increasing positive consumer sentiment with that report. I am continuing to analyze and post if I can make sense of it. The silver lining currently is that in April consumer sentiment continues to rise. I can't imagine anything other than a return to a positive retail number in April if that trend continues.

  5. @Anonymous,
    Interesting article on the Goldman Sachs reported orphan month. Care to share your belief on why the orphan was allowed by filing regulators?

  6. It seems like it's one thing to report good economic news, quite another to try to predict where the stock market will go, given all the non-economic factors that affect it in any given period, plus all the speculators that don't necessarily pay attention to the fundamentals.

  7. Anonymous,

    For the average American any indication right now that the stock market or other tangible equities gaining in value will be perceived as Good News.

    Any indicators or forecasts that substantiate that historical perspective will continue to be reported here.

    Our bias here is always tilted against the majority as one basic principal we report is that the "majority is always wrong." (See that earlier post in reference to the 1973/1974 markets)


  8. I am not that surprised that gross retail sales are down. We're seeing stores close all over the country at malls. However, I would think net profits are more important and with retailers, and all businesses for that matter, reducing their expenses, we should see net profits rise even if there is a dip in gross revenue.


We want to hear from you, and you know you want to say something...

FREE Good News delivered to your Email Inbox (With Easy Unsubscribe at Any Time)

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

If you prefer RSS feed subscription...

If you prefer RSS feed subscription...
...Click This Icon For The RSS Feed