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Thursday, May 21, 2009

Leading Indicators Jump in April

On Wednesday, the Conference Board released it's leading indicators report for April. Not only did the combined index rise sharply for the first time since June 2008, but when examining all the components that make up the index, strengths overcame any weaknesses. It was the first time in over a year and one half that those positive components outweighed weak ones. Stock prices, the interest rate spread, consumer expectations, initial unemployment claims, the average workweek, and supplier deliveries all pushed the index higher in April.

Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein said, "This is more broad-based. It's not just the stock market rally."

(click on chart to enlarge)

Source: (The Conference Board)


  1. GNE,

    Any concern that the recent run-up in oil prices will stall the recovery? I read on one blog that the speculators are back at it believing that we're in for a lot of inflation.

  2. This link may give you some context around the oil price activity:

    I doubt the current oil futures will go anywhere near where they were last year at this time.

    With respect to inflation. The Fed is watching very carefully for any sign of inflation and has many, many mechanisms at it's disposal in order to keep it in check. So far the data gives no merit to any speculation that inflation is anywhere on the horizon.


  3. No oil will stay in this range for a while. As it hit 147.25 in 08 the middle east was pointing its fingers on the speculators and specialists on wall street. As the run up in oil the economy came crashing down and as the NYSE and the NASDAQ burned Wall Street was making billions. Now that we have hit our bottom whether you agree with it or not doesn't matter oil will remain stabalized for now as this economy takes off and the low interest rates will create a surplus of money from the fed slowly increasing it saying they do not want to choke off the recovery but infact their only fueling where huge gains will be made.


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