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Tuesday, August 18, 2009

NY Regional Manufacturing Spikes, Loan Charge Offs Continue to Fall

On Monday two more signals pointed to a stronger Q3 than many are expecting.

The behemoth credit card issuer JPMorgan Chase reported that its bad debt charge-off numbers have now falling for two months in a row. Not surprising as the unemployment rate has now peaked for this cycle and is now on its way down, unsecured loan defaults are decreasing as well. Other large plastic issuers have reported similar declines in such charge-offs.

Even more noteworthy was the spike up in the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index reported Monday. You may recall the "giant sucking sound" lurking below the Empire readings earlier in the year. Those sounds are no longer lurking as the general business conditions index spiked by 13 points in July, to +12.1, its highest level since November of 2007. If the upward spiking trend continues into Aug and Sept, by the time the quarter closes, business conditions in the NY region will be at positive levels not seen for over ten years -- no doubt leading to surprisingly strong Q3 in manufacturing for the NY region.


  1. GNE,

    Do you think there is any chance that 2nd quarter GDP might be revised upward to show actual growth in the 2nd quarter or is that asking too much?

  2. GNE,

    The weekly unemployment claims data was disturbing in that both weekly and the 4 week moving average climbed. Do you agree that this suggests the recovery will be weak because people will be afraid to spend?

  3. I continue to note that all indicators are pointing to significant bounces in economic activity. I'm not sure we will get a big upward revision for Q2, but Q3 numbers will be quite surprising to most.

    The Rasmussen Consumer Index continues to trend up... consumer confidence is now up nine points from a month ago and up 17 points from the beginning of 2009.



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