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Saturday, November 13, 2010

Manufacturing Continues to Lead Recovery; Jobs Growth

On Monday we will continue to watch for signs of significant hiring strength in the manufacturing sector.

Last month the Empire State manufacturing index jumped to 15.73 from 4.14 in September.

You may have noticed in the raw data, two series that suggest continued improvement ahead. First, the new manufacturing orders index rose to 12.90 from 4.33 in September. That type of strength in new orders almost always translates into healthier production. But of perhaps more interest was the employment index which jumped to a very strong 21.67 from 14.93 and 14.29 in the two prior months which were already strong. Manufacturers would not be hiring if they were not expecting to continue to expand production.

On Monday we will likely see a report that indicates a sector that continues it's year-long streak of growth and jobs expansion.


  1. Well, so much for your prediction on the Empire State Index. Not a good sign.

  2. Bill,

    Note that in the Monday report, hiring is still quite strong. Let's watch the Philly report. Again, manufacturers (particularly those in the NY region) would not be hiring if they were not expecting to continue to expand production. That is a great sign.

    Don't read too much into one diffusion index reading as a "sign", good or bad... look to a string of readings for the trend... and post-Monday's report the trend both in the hiring and growth indices is positive.


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