More Evidence of Worldwide Recovery Growth Accelleration

Singapore Dollar Jumps, South Korean Won Up, and Intel Beats Yet Again.

The Singapore government announced early Wednesday that its economy is likely to expand by 9% this year. Coincidentally, South Korea also announced that its economic growth is accelerating. Meanwhile, economists surveyed by Bloomberg have estimated that China’s economy probably grew by 11.7% in the first quarter, the fastest rate in nearly three years. Stocks rallying in early Wednesday trading as Intel's global sales performance release late Tuesday continues to show Intel on a blistering growth trajectory. Intel shares rose as much as 3.6% in extended trading after the chip giant beat the street yet again.

The growth results in Singapore and the largest reported drop in Korean unemployment in a decade underscored Asia’s leadership in the global recovery. Stateside, Intel’s new forward-looking estimates punctuate a recovery that is taking solid root.

“Companies are demonstrating that economic conditions are improving, and the data points to an ongoing theme of recovery,” said Prasad Patkar, at Platypus Asset Management Ltd. in Sydney.

“Risk appetite is improving, buoyed by solid economic data and corporate profits,” said Norihiro Tsuruta, chief strategist in Tokyo at Shinko Research Institute Ltd.

And the U.S. Economic engine driven primarily by retail sales is also revving up. On Tuesday the ICSC-Goldman report registered a very strong plus 4.0 percent year-on-year pace. According to Goldman forecasts, strength in April will prove to be a key indication of U.S. consumer strength. Their forecasters expect a "very healthy" plus 4.0 percent year-on-year rate for the months of March and April combined.

An acceleration in the U.S. GDP would mean (by definition) that Q1 GDP will be above the rate measured in Q4.

Consumers Releasing Pent Up Demand

On Tuesday there was more evidence that U.S. consumers are starting to release their pent up propensity to spend. Redbook reported an extremely strong plus 4.4% year-on-year same-store sales rate in the March 27 week -- by far the strongest gain of the recovery thus far.

Redbook also upped its estimate for a plus 1.2% March-from-February rate, up 3 tenths from its estimate last week. Keeping in mind that retail sales makes up nearly 70% of the annualized U.S. GDP rate, first quarter growth rate continues to look like it is accelerating from the already strong showing in Q4.

If the Redbook rate is annualized it points currently to a torrid 14.4% growth clip for the largest contributing segment of the U.S. GDP.

Consumer Spending Now Likely Fastest In Three Years

U.S. retail sales posted a surprising gain in February despite falling car demand amid trouble at auto maker Toyota MotorCorp. and fierce blizzards that crippled the East Coast for days.

Retail sales rose last month by 0.3%, the Commerce Department said Friday. An average of economists surveyed had forecast a 0.3% decrease in February sales. The Super Bowl early in the month had electronic store sales bounding higher.

"This is a pleasant surprise, especially in the light of the severe winter weather across large parts of the country last month," said Ian Shepherdson, an analyst at High Frequency Economics.

Retail sales data are an important indicator of consumer spending and consumer spending makes up 70% of demand in the U.S. economy.

The unexpected increase moved Macroeconomic Advisers to pushed their forecast for first-quarter gross domestic product growth way up, by four-tenths to 3.1%. Other analysts agree with the strong first quarter forecast.

"Consumers are beginning to come out of their shells," IHS Global Insight analyst Nigel Gault said. "Today's data suggests that real consumer spending will rise about 3% in the first quarter, the fastest increase in three years."