When all you read is gloom, turn here for a much different perspective.

Monday, October 19, 2009

Bad News Bears Battle Break-Neck Bounce

Phrases like dead-cat bounce, house of cards, stagflation, W-shaped, U-shaped, lackluster, sucker's rally, deflation spiral, run-away inflation, and great depression were all in their pronouncements.

The bad news bears have pointed to a fearful, unemployed consumer who has cut up her credit card, has no more savings, and a government that has only racked up more national debt -- the dollar is dead -- they claim.

But the Q3 business realities continue to paint a starkly different picture.

Stimulus programs are firing up. Inflation is under control. Manufacturing lines are back on-line. Equities are on a roll. Optimism is accelerating.

So what are the doomsters missing?

Here's what Barton Briggs (Managing Partner of Traxis Partners Investment Fund) writes in Newsweek:

"First and foremost, they are betting against America, the greatest entrepreneurial engine ever created. History says buy America when it's down. In addition, emerging economies may well be the new dynamo of growth. They now account for 35 percent of world GDP and are growing two to three times faster than the developed world. S&P 500 companies now collect almost 50 percent of their revenues from overseas, and almost half of that portion comes from these fast-growing developing countries. Another factor could be that stocks currently despite the rally are still deeply undervalued. The rule of thumb is that stocks should sell at a price/earnings ratio equal to 20 less the inflation rate. Assume S&P 500 operating earnings are $70 to $75 next year and inflation is 1 percent, you get a theoretical price far higher than the current level of 1060."

Not only will the second half of 2009 continue to be strong, but 2010 will likely reap the benefits of this new international growth dynamo. It will be interesting to see where and when the dead cat lands.

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