Wednesday saw significant spikes in confidence from four important market groups:
1. The Consumer: On Wednesday the Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures consumer confidence on a daily basis, rocketed to its highest level in exactly one year.
2. Investors: Also on Wednesday, the Rasmussen Investor Index spiked to its highest level in over a year. Investor confidence is up 28 points since Jan 1.
3. Builders: Confidence among U.S. home-builders rose in September for the third straight month. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index bounced to it's highest level in 16 months.
4. Small Businesses: Economic confidence among small businesses leaped to its highest level in 18 months in August as more owners expressed faith in U.S. economic recovery. According to the latest Discover Small Business Watch, their small business index rose 7.7 points from July, reaching the highest level since February 2008.
It is no wonder 2009 growth is coming on strong and the stock market might just be poised for a major leg up.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Confidence Spike: Consumers, Small Business, Builders, Investors
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GNE,
ReplyDeleteAre you concerned about the drop in sales reported by FEDEX and Oracle and generally that the "better than expected" mantra will not suffice on the next earnings cycle if those earnings are generally poor?
This is obvious that confidence of all including - consumers, small businesses, builders and investors, because the economy is showing positive signs again. Hopefully their confidence will on peak when entire world gets out of this present recession.
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Anonymous,
ReplyDeleteWhat I found most interesting about the FEDEX earnings call was their expectation that the U.S. gross domestic product will grow 3% in the calendar third quarter and 4.9% in the fourth quarter. As you well know when others out there were saying the recovery would be lackluster, we were saying we saw a strong recovery in the second half of 2009. I'd say Intel was one of the first to see that and now FEDEX is on board with that view as well. So you don't have to just take it from the Good News Economist, the leader in microprocessors and the leader in global shipping both say that the recovery is coming on strong.
With respect to Oracle... my take is that they are significantly distracted with their attempt to purchase SUN Microsystems. If and/or when they get that behind them, we can again look to them as a litmus test of the health of the software industry.
Laguna,
Unfortunately it is *not* obvious to many. That is why we keep posting the good news here...
GNE
This is great news.Finally, we are regaining our confidence in the market. Confidence is an important factor to fight for the revival of our market. Now i am sure we will be in better economic position by the end of this year only.
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Very thoughtfull post on confidence .It should be very much helpfull
ReplyDeleteThanks,
Karim - Creating Power
Hope we have better results in 2010
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