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Thursday, November 5, 2009

Cisco Joins Many Others: Recovery Is Gaining Momentum

John Chambers ignited markets on Thursday. The Cisco CEO joined other leading firms like Apple, Amazon, Alcoa, Intel, and others by stating that, "the quarter was very strong. The recovery is gaining momentum." Earlier in the week, the institute for supply management speculated that the US GDP is likely now growing at an annualized rate of 4.5%.

Chambers continued, "what we saw is a clear tipping point as our business continued to reflect strong sequential growth trends that meet or exceed expectations during normal economic times."

Elsewhere on Thursday the US Labor Department said the output per hour of nonfarm workers rose at an annual rate of 9.5% in the quarter, more than four times the average productivity growth rate of the past quarter-century. When taken together with the second quarter's 6.9% rise, it was the strongest productivity growth rate over a six-month period since 1961.

While unemployment remains high, initial claims for unemployment continue to fall and corporate profits have bounced back significantly from the strong downturn in Q1. As output keeps climbing, employment gains will follow shortly.

Such large productivity gains are quite common at the end of deep recessions and the beginning of recoveries. A healthy pattern is that productivity grows first, then employment rises, and finally wages increase.

It continues to be clear that this recovery will not be a jobless one. In fact on Thursday the government also reported that jobless claims dropped to a 10-month low raising speculation that the national unemployment rate has peaked will begin to fall as soon as next month.

Employment gains have already sparked reasons for optimism in many states.

As jobless rates continue to decrease nationally, almost all economic indicators will have turned positive: leading, coincident and lagging.

And as we've published here since February (and as was witnessed on Thursday), the stock market will continue its move -- swift and steep.


  1. GNE,

    Would you agree that today's unemployment report is not a good sign for recovery? It seems like we will surpass the unemployment rate of the early 1980s.

  2. How high did the rates go in the 80's and could this be the final piece of bad news? Obama said the rates would continue to climb. Does that mean the recovery is not real or that this is the lagging indicator, as painful as it may be?

  3. Seems pretty clear from the post that this is likely the final piece of bad news from this cycle. With initial claims now continuing to fall and actually job losses under 200,000 per month, this is great news for a recovery. I'd agree with the GNE and the speculation that the lagging rate has likely peaked this month and is likely to begin to fall soon.

  4. Just wondering about today's unemployment numbers - 190,000 jobs were shed according to the survey of businesses, but the unemployment number rose from 15.1m to 15.7m according to a survey of households meaning 600k jobs were lost. What number is right? I also understand that the Labor Department revised their previous month's unemployment figures down from their original estimates. It doesn't seem like we have any real clue about what the unemployment picture in this country looks like.

  5. GNE:

    I've been following your blog since December 2008. You've been right on target for everything so far. I really hope that you're right about the job gains.

  6. thanks all for reading.

    Employment is always the last indicator to show improvement in a recovery following a recession. Given the strong economic growth, production growth, and dwindling inventories, jobs growth is indeed just around the corner.



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