When all you read is gloom, turn here for a much different perspective.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Home Prices Continue Seasonal Improvement

Seasonal factors play an important part in the monitoring housing prices, pushing up prices during the high traffic months of the spring and summer and pulling them down in the cold of the fall and winter.

The Case-Shiller data on home prices was released on Tuesday. When seasonally adjusted, the data points to an extended price recovery, at plus 0.3 percent in December vs. 0.2 percent gains in the prior three months going back to September. These results point to a building on top of last years mid-year gains.

City-by-city, the data shows consistent improvement continuing to build in the West and the Midwest. The narrower 10 City Composite Index also accelerated to a gained 0.3% following three months of only a 0.2% increase.


  1. GNE,

    Isn't today's report on new home sales very disturbing? It seems the trend is clearly downward and will only get worse when the tax credit expires soon. It also looks like Fannie and Freddie are in trouble again and will need more bailout money.

  2. Bill,

    I think you know me well enough to know that I am not going to take one report and generalize a trend. From a price perspective (with seasonal adjustments made) we are trending in a positive direction. Price movement follows firming of demand, so in general the demand picture is still quite positive.

    I won't speculate on what will be required of F & F, but I'd recommend not betting one way or the other.


  3. GNE,

    Fair enough on the housing report, but what about the continuing increase in UI claims? Do you think it's just another temporary blip or could this be a bigger concern. As you may recall, I'm a construction lawyer and I keep seeing more reports of layoffs in my industry. Unemployment is getting close to 20% in construction.

  4. I am somewhat concerned by the UI claims this week. From a construction perspective, I have to believe that storm after storm on the east coast cannot be good for housing starts or for those in the midst of a job search... yet another 2+ ft of snow again from PA north this evening...

    Tomorrow however all eyes will be on the revised Q4 GDP number... the storm being just far enough north not to effect DC offices this time.

  5. I really had a great time with your post! I am looking forward to read more blog post regarding this! Well written!


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