The Rasmussen Consumer Confidence Index, rose to its highest reading so far this year on Wednesday. At 79.9, the index is now at its highest level since just a few days after the Lehman Brothers collapse -- which many analysts mark as the start of last year's financial crisis. The consumer index (which is refreshed daily) is now up 20 points from the start of 2009.
The Rasmussen Investor Index, also spiked up two points on Wednesday. The investor confidence guage is now up 23 points from the beginning of the year.
The consumer reading is more evidence that
Q3 GDP growth will likely be much stronger than most economists expect or are currently predicting.
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GNE,
ReplyDeleteAre you concerned that retail sales fell and unemployment claims rose by 60%? Do these reports, coupled with the decline in the ISM service sector report for July suggest no recovery or very slow one at best?
No, I don't believe they do. A look at the four week moving average is a better indicator of unemployment claims... that average continues to fall. The unemployment rate is likely at it's peak and that is great news for labor numbers.
ReplyDeleteAgain the ISM service sector index -- while important, should not be viewed independently of the manufacturing index which has a correlation model with the overall GDP growth metric.
It is still pretty clear that growth restarted in June as reflected in the government's GDP report for Q2. In the current quarter with consumers swarming to purchase new vehicles, car manufacturers rapidly ramping production, and Walmart still growing at a very healthy clip, it still is very probable that Q3 GDP numbers will be surprisingly strong.
GNE,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your reply. You never fail to reassure. We miss your daily posts- assume you've been busy or on vacation.
Yes, I have been on vacation traveling throughout New England... internet access has been sporadic, so I post when I can...
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading!
GNE