On Monday two more signals pointed to a stronger Q3 than many are expecting.
The behemoth credit card issuer JPMorgan Chase reported that its bad debt charge-off numbers have now falling for two months in a row. Not surprising as the unemployment rate has now peaked for this cycle and is now on its way down, unsecured loan defaults are decreasing as well. Other large plastic issuers have reported similar declines in such charge-offs.
Even more noteworthy was the spike up in the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index reported Monday. You may recall the "giant sucking sound" lurking below the Empire readings earlier in the year. Those sounds are no longer lurking as the general business conditions index spiked by 13 points in July, to +12.1, its highest level since November of 2007. If the upward spiking trend continues into Aug and Sept, by the time the quarter closes, business conditions in the NY region will be at positive levels not seen for over ten years -- no doubt leading to surprisingly strong Q3 in manufacturing for the NY region.
When all you read is gloom, turn here for a much different perspective.