When all you read is gloom, turn here for a much different perspective.

Friday, January 30, 2009

Propensity to Report Good News Increasing

This was probably one of the easiest days for me to find good news to write about in quite some time.

Let's jump right in.

1. The GDP was only down 1%, not 3.8% as many report.
The estimate for the Gross Domestic Product for Q4-2008 was about $11,599B. That is only 0.965% smaller than in Q3 2008. Typically folks take that 0.965% and multiply by 4 to get an yearly number. But because so much Fed activity is occurring, these quarterly rates are likely to change significantly. It make no sense to multiple this number by 4. For example, back in the first quarter of 1982, the GDP "drop" reported was 6.4%... but the overall drop between the peak and valley's in that recession was 2.3%!

2. Consumer Confidence is in a surprise rebound: The preliminary reading of the index for January rose to 61.9 from December's 60.1. Consensus estimates were calling for a fall in confidence to 59.0.

3. There is further evidence that any deflation talk is significantly overstated. For the last month or so the bond market continued to price in an irrational deflationary bias. But in the past two weeks, there has been a significant reversal of this sentiment. Bond prices now reflect the change of that attitude.

4. Housing affordability surged to a record high in Dec. You can find the raw table here.

5. And of course as you've read all week: Fortune 1000 are likely posed and ready to hire more than 700,000 new workers.

The Dow 8,000 looks cheap to me.

Good News?

1 comment:

  1. The US banking system needs to be nationalized, because the BIG wall street banks are insolvent and they will continue to be a drag on the economy for years, if they are not dealt with like the cancer they are; there needs to be a move by Obama to force nationalization and kick all the current management out (and the boards)!


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