When all you read is gloom, turn here for a much different perspective.

Friday, February 6, 2009

Retail Growth Already Skyrocketing in 2009

Do you remember how that gloomy GDP number was calculated last week?

In Q3 to Q4 the economy contracted by 0.9%. Take that times 4 and you get a 3.6% contraction for a full year.

Okay so do you want to have some fun? Look at just how ridiculous that is by applying similar logic to recent small "successes" in the retail segment... (The hype in the headlines is that consumers are not buying.) Really?

Many retailers (RLX) reporting earnings this past week actually beat their numbers. Not all the numbers were glowing, but two of the major players stand out.

You may have seen Walmart (WMT) for instance report that Jan. 2009 sales increased 1.8% from Dec. So annualized that 1.8 percent multiplied by 12 is a 21.6% growth in 2009.

Over at Walgreens (WAG) they are already five months into their fiscal 2009. They reported this week that for the first five months sales are up 7.3 percent. Applying the appropriate ratio and you get growth for their fiscal year of 17.5%

And Amazon recently estimated that its Q1 sales will be up 9 to 19%. So for the year sales will be up a whopping 36% to 76%! Right?

Okay so even I'll admit that it is not that rosy. But hey, it is not that gloomy either.

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